MODEL VERDICT
Kyverna Therapeutics, Inc. (KYTX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $8.32 | CURRENT | +7.6% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $8.78 | Monitoring | -0.1% |
| Nov 12, 2025 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $7.33 | Scaled in | +10.2% |
| Oct 13, 2025 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $6.93 | Scaled in | +20.1% |
| Sep 13, 2025 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $3.92 | Scaled in | +124.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Insufficient data to determine relative valuation for KYTX.
Fair value could not be computed for KYTX due to insufficient comparable data.
KYTX's current P/E of -2.7x compares to the industry median of 24.4x (47 peers in the group). This represents a -110.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
4 analysts cover KYTX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $32.67 (range: $32.00 — $33.00), implying +268.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 38/100, based on: data completeness (0), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows weak agreement across inputs — interpret with caution.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for KYTX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.