MODEL VERDICT
Loews Corporation (L)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $111.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $110.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $111.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $110.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $109.47 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $89.01 | -20.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 6 industry peers | $147.82 | +32.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $14.67 | -86.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $88.57 | -20.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 6 bank peers | $177.86 | +59.2% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $130.00 | +16.4% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $102.28 | -8.4% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $96.37 | -13.7% | 100% | 94 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $83 | $99 | $116 | $133 | $149 |
| Conservative (7%) | $85 | $102 | $119 | $136 | $153 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $88 | $105 | $123 | $140 | $158 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $90 | $109 | $127 | $145 | $163 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.58 | 13.21 | 9.63 | 17.26 | 3.10 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.26 | 11.55 | 9.09 | 15.86 | 2.70 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.22 | 10.87 | 8.78 | 13.97 | 2.00 |
| P/FCF | 9.74 | 7.80 | 4.92 | 22.75 | 6.21 |
| P/FFO | 8.91 | 8.92 | 7.24 | 10.66 | 1.23 |
| P/TBV | 0.92 | 0.96 | 0.71 | 1.14 | 0.16 |
| P/AFFO | 14.77 | 13.33 | 9.42 | 21.15 | 4.44 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.89 | 0.93 | 0.66 | 1.12 | 0.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.06 | 1.08 | 0.92 | 1.21 | 0.09 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates L's fair value at $96.37 vs the current price of $111.70, implying -13.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $96.37 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $86.20 (P10) to $107.92 (P90), with a median of $97.18.
L's current P/E of 14.0x compares to the industry median of 11.2x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +25.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.6x over 6 years. Signal: Premium.
4 analysts cover L with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: L trades at the 6670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (13.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that L's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (6.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3470.0% to approximately $73. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.