Liberty Global plc (LBTYK)
Valuation Overview•Is Liberty Global plc Overvalued or Undervalued?
Priced at a premium to peer multiples and intrinsic cash flows, demanding strong execution to justify current levels.
Fragile underlying quality score of 33/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Highly distressed profile flashing severe fundamental warning signs.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
LBTYK struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (6.7% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (1.5%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.3B | +12.4% | +6.7% | -15.8% | -11.8% | |
| EBITDA | $329.4M | — | -4.4% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $337.8M | -549.5% | — | — | -20.0% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.96 | -564.8% | — | — | -30.9% | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$290.0M | -110.9% | — | +51.7% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 66.0% | 67.0% | 69.1% | 70.9% |
| Operating Margin | 1.5% | -1.8% | 2.3% | 6.1% |
| Net Margin | -109.7% | -69.4% | -8.3% | 4.2% |
| FCF Margin | 12.2% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 21.1% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $-0.35 | $0.96 | +372.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.31 | $-8.60 | -2670.6% | ||
| Q4'25 | $-0.43 | $-0.27 | +37.1% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-0.44 | $-8.09 | -1758.2% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-0.83 | $-3.84 | -362.7% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-0.86 | $6.33 | +836.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-0.71 | $-3.95 | -456.3% | ||
| Q3'24 | $-0.95 | $0.71 | +174.7% |
Total return is +4.5% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -16.4%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -0.9% | -8.3% | — |
| 1Y | +4.5% | -16.4% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +5.5% | -13.5% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -5.9% | -17.1% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -3.3% | -18.1% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Liberty Global plc (LBTYK) valuation, health, and returns.
Liberty Global plc is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -31.7% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $7.46)
Liberty Global plc has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $7.46 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $5.90 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $12.67 (implying +15.9% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Liberty Global plc displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 33/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 0.2 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 0.3%.
Liberty Global plc returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 5.2% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by +0.0% in the last 12 months.
Liberty Global plc's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +12.4% 1Y revenue growth and -564.8% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +6.7%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 29 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 50% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +15.9% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Liberty Global plc include: -16.3% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.65x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.