MODEL VERDICT
Lear Corporation (LEA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $132.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $128.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $125.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $118.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $124.60 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $161.85 | +22.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $161.67 | +22.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $142.19 | +7.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 12 industry peers | $111.86 | -15.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $128.59 | -2.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 12 industry peers | $105.57 | -20.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $312.54 | +136.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $276.86 | +109.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $142.19 | +7.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 12 industry peers | $111.62 | -15.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $160.48 | +21.2% | 100% | 80 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $101 | $119 | $137 | $156 | $174 |
| Conservative (5%) | $104 | $122 | $141 | $160 | $179 |
| Base Case (-6.8%) | $92 | $109 | $125 | $142 | $159 |
| Bull Case (-9%) | $90 | $106 | $122 | $138 | $155 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.27 | 14.58 | 7.13 | 60.63 | 18.63 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.24 | 12.21 | 5.29 | 28.17 | 7.68 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.92 | 7.06 | 3.89 | 9.85 | 2.28 |
| P/FCF | 33.97 | 13.40 | 7.37 | 130.05 | 44.29 |
| P/FFO | 8.15 | 7.10 | 4.74 | 13.76 | 3.39 |
| P/TBV | 3.00 | 2.98 | 1.92 | 3.88 | 0.69 |
| P/AFFO | 20.41 | 15.22 | 8.59 | 39.05 | 11.97 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.77 | 1.80 | 1.16 | 2.30 | 0.37 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.41 | 0.38 | 0.23 | 0.57 | 0.12 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates LEA's fair value at $160.48 vs the current price of $132.41, implying +21.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $160.48 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $141.46 (P10) to $221.58 (P90), with a median of $176.54.
LEA's current P/E of 14.8x compares to the industry median of 15.9x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -6.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.3x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
31 analysts cover LEA with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $126.57 (range: $115.00 — $145.00), implying -4.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (17), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LEA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (4.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 22470.0% to approximately $430. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.