MODEL VERDICT
Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. (LECO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $266.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $260.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $261.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $255.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $256.26 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $234.47 | -11.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $238.89 | -10.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $297.35 | +11.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $258.04 | -3.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $281.67 | +5.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $283.61 | +6.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $499.57 | +87.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $267.29 | +0.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $248.58 | -6.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $303.76 | +14.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $258.95 | -2.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $273.17 | +2.6% | 100% | 91 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 27× | 29× (Current) | 31× | 33× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $254 | $274 | $294 | $315 | $335 |
| Conservative (14%) | $267 | $288 | $309 | $331 | $352 |
| Base Case (22.2%) | $285 | $308 | $330 | $353 | $376 |
| Bull Case (30%) | $303 | $327 | $351 | $376 | $400 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.98 | 23.21 | 17.97 | 33.99 | 5.55 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.94 | 17.28 | 15.14 | 22.77 | 2.78 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.53 | 16.59 | 13.82 | 20.71 | 2.18 |
| P/FCF | 23.76 | 23.97 | 18.17 | 27.69 | 3.32 |
| P/FFO | 20.07 | 20.04 | 15.43 | 24.44 | 3.41 |
| P/TBV | 28.08 | 29.46 | 9.11 | 51.11 | 13.27 |
| P/AFFO | 24.56 | 24.49 | 17.74 | 30.80 | 4.66 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.72 | 8.86 | 7.39 | 9.70 | 0.86 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.62 | 2.64 | 2.02 | 3.16 | 0.40 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates LECO's fair value at $273.17 vs the current price of $266.25, implying +2.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $273.17 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $234.83 (P10) to $265.59 (P90), with a median of $250.11.
LECO's current P/E of 28.6x compares to the industry median of 31.9x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -10.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.0x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
22 analysts cover LECO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $301.71 (range: $240.00 — $340.00), implying +13.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (14), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: LECO trades at the 2500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (25.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LECO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1310.0% to approximately $301. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.