MODEL VERDICT
Leggett & Platt, Incorporated (LEG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $10.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $11.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $12.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $11.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $9.99 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $13.34 | +22.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $27.47 | +152.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $30.31 | +178.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $28.02 | +157.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $19.00 | +74.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $33.18 | +204.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $45.85 | +321.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $33.84 | +210.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $30.27 | +178.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $27.98 | +156.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $22.78 | +109.2% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 6× (Current) | 8× | 10× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $7 | $7 | $10 | $14 | $17 |
| Conservative (5%) | $7 | $7 | $11 | $14 | $18 |
| Base Case (-1.9%) | $7 | $7 | $10 | $13 | $17 |
| Bull Case (-3%) | $7 | $7 | $10 | $13 | $16 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.82 | 14.20 | 6.51 | 23.82 | 6.69 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.97 | 13.02 | 7.32 | 18.84 | 4.67 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.32 | 10.26 | 7.20 | 13.05 | 2.14 |
| P/FCF | 13.15 | 11.22 | 5.47 | 34.16 | 9.76 |
| P/FFO | 22.13 | 11.57 | 4.29 | 82.76 | 29.90 |
| P/AFFO | 12.61 | 11.65 | 5.11 | 18.97 | 5.26 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.11 | 2.68 | 1.50 | 5.24 | 1.32 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.89 | 0.85 | 0.30 | 1.45 | 0.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates LEG's fair value at $22.78 vs the current price of $10.89, implying +109.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $22.78 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.49 (P10) to $27.74 (P90), with a median of $24.57.
LEG's current P/E of 6.4x compares to the industry median of 17.9x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -64.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.8x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
14 analysts cover LEG with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $12.00 (range: $12.00 — $12.00), implying +10.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (10), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LEG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (5.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 13370.0% to approximately $25. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.