MODEL VERDICT
Lennar Corporation (LEN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $88.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $94.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $92.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $88.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $88.97 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $90.97 | +2.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $80.54 | -8.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $91.21 | +3.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $1.45 | -98.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $86.79 | -1.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $168.50 | +90.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $160.01 | +80.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $91.21 | +3.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $1.45 | -98.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $92.31 | +4.4% | 100% | 70 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $57 | $73 | $90 | $106 | $122 |
| Conservative (5%) | $59 | $75 | $92 | $109 | $126 |
| Base Case (0.3%) | $56 | $72 | $88 | $104 | $120 |
| Bull Case (0%) | $56 | $72 | $88 | $104 | $120 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.51 | 9.71 | 5.76 | 12.88 | 2.21 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.99 | 7.82 | 4.61 | 10.56 | 2.11 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.89 | 7.58 | 4.06 | 10.06 | 2.04 |
| P/FCF | 143.74 | 12.73 | 5.73 | 940.15 | 351.21 |
| P/FFO | 9.07 | 9.16 | 5.58 | 12.09 | 2.02 |
| P/TBV | 1.60 | 1.52 | 1.27 | 2.05 | 0.27 |
| P/AFFO | 9.46 | 9.57 | 5.65 | 13.22 | 2.32 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.33 | 1.30 | 1.08 | 1.70 | 0.23 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.00 | 1.05 | 0.78 | 1.31 | 0.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 24 valuation metrics, the model estimates LEN's fair value at $92.31 vs the current price of $88.45, implying +4.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $92.31 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $81.68 (P10) to $99.28 (P90), with a median of $90.43.
LEN's current P/E of 11.1x compares to the industry median of 11.4x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -3.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.5x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
50 analysts cover LEN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $102.14 (range: $88.00 — $125.00), implying +15.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (23), Hold (19), Sell (8), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: LEN trades at the 4210th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (9.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LEN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 10670.0% to approximately $183. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.