MODEL VERDICT
Centrus Energy Corp. (LEU)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $206.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $205.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $203.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $197.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $187.22 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 1 analyst estimates | $133.19 | -35.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 1 industry peers | $170.73 | -17.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 1 industry peers | $153.55 | -25.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 1 industry peers | $63.00 | -69.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 1 industry peers | $138.93 | -32.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 1 industry peers | $106.37 | -48.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $96.13 | -53.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $232.39 | +12.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $197.11 | -4.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 1 industry peers | $111.95 | -45.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 1 industry peers | $35.64 | -82.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $127.85 | -38.1% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 45× | 49× | 53× (Current) | 57× | 61× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (19%) | $208 | $227 | $245 | $264 | $283 |
| Conservative (31%) | $229 | $249 | $270 | $290 | $310 |
| Base Case (46.9%) | $258 | $281 | $304 | $327 | $349 |
| Bull Case (63%) | $287 | $312 | $338 | $363 | $388 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.74 | 12.45 | 5.12 | 62.25 | 22.71 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.46 | 6.98 | 3.74 | 12.37 | 3.55 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.63 | 11.00 | 3.41 | 81.54 | 29.71 |
| P/FCF | 49.75 | 24.46 | 3.56 | 154.54 | 59.37 |
| P/FFO | 15.47 | 8.55 | 3.77 | 55.15 | 19.75 |
| P/AFFO | 18.30 | 8.67 | 3.80 | 71.13 | 26.14 |
| P/B Ratio | 13.06 | 6.76 | 6.32 | 26.11 | 11.30 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.02 | 2.32 | 0.31 | 10.78 | 3.53 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates LEU's fair value at $127.85 vs the current price of $206.64, implying -38.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $127.85 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $104.64 (P10) to $152.23 (P90), with a median of $126.32.
LEU's current P/E of 53.0x compares to the industry median of 39.4x (1 peers in the group). This represents a +34.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.7x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
12 analysts cover LEU with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $276.67 (range: $137.00 — $390.00), implying +33.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: LEU trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (23.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LEU's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (18.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6730.0% to approximately $68. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.