MODEL VERDICT
LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $48.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $45.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $43.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $39.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $39.75 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $39.37 | -18.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $33.45 | -31.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $28.41 | -41.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $87.42 | +80.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $33.45 | -31.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $49.12 | +1.2% | 100% | 63 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $38 | $45 | $51 | $57 | $64 |
| Conservative (5%) | $39 | $46 | $52 | $59 | $66 |
| Base Case (-24.5%) | $28 | $33 | $38 | $42 | $47 |
| Bull Case (-33%) | $25 | $29 | $33 | $38 | $42 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.63 | 10.06 | 6.73 | 15.81 | 3.18 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.91 | 10.63 | 8.41 | 26.34 | 6.71 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.95 | 10.76 | 8.40 | 30.85 | 8.15 |
| P/FFO | 10.45 | 10.02 | 6.70 | 15.62 | 3.01 |
| P/TBV | 1.70 | 1.71 | 0.48 | 2.78 | 0.81 |
| P/AFFO | 10.53 | 10.06 | 6.72 | 15.73 | 3.05 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.68 | 1.70 | 0.48 | 2.76 | 0.80 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.03 | 0.98 | 0.59 | 1.34 | 0.25 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates LGIH's fair value at $49.12 vs the current price of $48.53, implying +1.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $49.12 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.63 (P10) to $27.74 (P90), with a median of $24.41.
LGIH's current P/E of 15.6x compares to the industry median of 10.7x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +45.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.6x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
13 analysts cover LGIH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $88.80 (range: $60.00 — $125.00), implying +83.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (4), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: LGIH trades at the 7370th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LGIH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.9σ, meaning margins are 1.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 10900.0% to approximately $101. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.