MODEL VERDICT
Li Auto Inc. (LI) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $17.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $18.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $18.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $18.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $16.66 | Pending | +10.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $32.85 | +86.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $104.17 | +492.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $117.86 | +570.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $79.14 | +349.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $114.50 | +550.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $167.46 | +852.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 16 industry peers | $206.63 | +1074.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 16 industry peers | $122.30 | +595.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $127.07 | +622.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $65.58 | +272.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $91.21 | +418.6% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $94 | $110 | $125 | $141 | $157 |
| Conservative (7%) | $96 | $112 | $128 | $145 | $161 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $100 | $116 | $133 | $149 | $166 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $103 | $120 | $137 | $154 | $171 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 5.89 | 6.08 | 0.90 | 10.59 | 3.97 |
| P/FFO | 62.39 | 57.49 | 2.30 | 132.26 | 69.51 |
| P/TBV | 0.62 | 0.66 | 0.37 | 0.90 | 0.21 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.61 | 0.65 | 0.36 | 0.88 | 0.21 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.99 | 0.43 | 0.18 | 2.92 | 1.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates LI's fair value at $91.21 vs the current price of $17.59, implying +418.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $91.21 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $81.06 (P10) to $113.71 (P90), with a median of $96.78.
LI's current P/E of 16.0x compares to the industry median of 15.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +2.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Fair Value.
15 analysts cover LI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $21.62 (range: $15.00 — $30.50), implying +22.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for LI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.