MODEL VERDICT
Li Auto Inc. (LI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $17.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $18.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $18.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $18.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $19.21 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 1 analyst estimates | $3.57 | -79.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 1 industry peers | $227.52 | +1194.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $152.60 | +768.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 2 industry peers | $525.34 | +2890.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $74.24 | +322.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 2 industry peers | $316.37 | +1700.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $158.29 | +800.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $106.27 | +504.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 1 industry peers | $294.40 | +1575.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 2 industry peers | $90.10 | +412.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $169.50 | +864.7% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $94 | $110 | $125 | $141 | $157 |
| Conservative (7%) | $96 | $112 | $128 | $145 | $161 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $100 | $116 | $133 | $149 | $166 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $103 | $120 | $137 | $154 | $171 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 5.89 | 6.08 | 0.90 | 10.59 | 3.97 |
| P/FFO | 62.39 | 57.49 | 2.30 | 132.26 | 69.51 |
| P/TBV | 0.62 | 0.66 | 0.37 | 0.90 | 0.21 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.61 | 0.65 | 0.36 | 0.88 | 0.21 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.99 | 0.43 | 0.18 | 2.92 | 1.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates LI's fair value at $169.50 vs the current price of $17.57, implying +864.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $169.50 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $180.55 (P10) to $248.59 (P90), with a median of $214.03.
LI's current P/E of 15.9x compares to the industry median of 20.2x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -21.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Discount.
16 analysts cover LI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $20.01 (range: $15.00 — $27.00), implying +13.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (7), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for LI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.