MODEL VERDICT
Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. (LIEN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 104 industry peers | $10.88 | +5.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 117 industry peers | $29.88 | +190.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 110 bank peers | $30.30 | +194.5% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 91 industry peers | $20.22 | +96.5% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 105 industry peers | $10.90 | +5.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 98 analyst estimates | $14.93 | +45.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $19.46 | +89.1% | 100% | 76 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $7 | $9 | $11 | $13 | $15 |
| Conservative (7%) | $7 | $9 | $11 | $13 | $15 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $7 | $9 | $11 | $13 | $15 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $7 | $9 | $12 | $14 | $16 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.29 | 13.11 | 7.15 | 31.61 | 12.76 |
| P/TBV | 0.55 | 0.61 | 0.42 | 0.63 | 0.12 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.55 | 0.61 | 0.42 | 0.63 | 0.12 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.56 | 7.02 | 5.23 | 13.44 | 4.32 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates LIEN's fair value at $19.46 vs the current price of $10.29, implying +89.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 76/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $19.46 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $14.40 (P10) to $27.13 (P90), with a median of $19.94.
LIEN's current P/E of 11.1x compares to the industry median of 11.7x (104 peers in the group). This represents a -5.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.3x over 3 years. Signal: Fair Value.
No analyst coverage data is available for LIEN.
The model confidence score is 76/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for LIEN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.