MODEL VERDICT
Linde plc (LIN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $507.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $510.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $492.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $497.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $503.15 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $243.47 | -52.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $302.04 | -40.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $357.84 | -29.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $237.48 | -53.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $357.33 | -29.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $290.92 | -42.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $1471.22 | +189.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $100.16 | -80.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $108.08 | -78.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $339.65 | -33.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $235.64 | -53.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $388.42 | -23.5% | 100% | 87 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 29× | 32× | 35× (Current) | 38× | 41× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $466 | $514 | $562 | $611 | $659 |
| Conservative (17%) | $493 | $544 | $595 | $646 | $697 |
| Base Case (25.4%) | $531 | $585 | $640 | $695 | $750 |
| Bull Case (34%) | $568 | $627 | $686 | $745 | $803 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 40.89 | 39.63 | 29.22 | 55.95 | 10.61 |
| EV/EBIT | 31.90 | 31.00 | 24.02 | 43.86 | 7.67 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.69 | 17.75 | 16.15 | 19.48 | 1.09 |
| P/FCF | 36.29 | 36.64 | 27.23 | 46.32 | 6.72 |
| P/FFO | 19.40 | 19.64 | 16.68 | 21.37 | 1.44 |
| P/TBV | 54.49 | 45.74 | 13.69 | 103.95 | 35.86 |
| P/AFFO | 34.62 | 34.51 | 31.75 | 37.55 | 2.19 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.01 | 3.98 | 2.25 | 5.11 | 1.13 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.46 | 5.87 | 4.11 | 6.15 | 0.76 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates LIN's fair value at $388.42 vs the current price of $507.92, implying -23.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $388.42 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $296.24 (P10) to $365.55 (P90), with a median of $330.55.
LIN's current P/E of 34.8x compares to the industry median of 24.5x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +41.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 40.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
28 analysts cover LIN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $539.71 (range: $501.00 — $579.00), implying +6.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (24), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LIN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (19.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1450.0% to approximately $581. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.