MODEL VERDICT
Limbach Holdings, Inc. (LMB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $99.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $96.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $93.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $88.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $82.59 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $93.14 | -6.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $116.83 | +17.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $128.84 | +29.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $65.09 | -34.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $94.00 | -5.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $79.47 | -19.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $356.43 | +259.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $85.44 | -13.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $85.80 | -13.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $128.84 | +29.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $65.09 | -34.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $101.07 | +1.9% | 100% | 85 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (16%) | $98 | $108 | $117 | $126 | $136 |
| Conservative (27%) | $107 | $117 | $127 | $138 | $148 |
| Base Case (41.1%) | $119 | $130 | $142 | $153 | $164 |
| Bull Case (55%) | $131 | $144 | $156 | $169 | $181 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.92 | 18.25 | 13.64 | 33.28 | 7.33 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.49 | 11.48 | 7.67 | 24.68 | 6.02 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.45 | 6.93 | 5.13 | 20.44 | 5.87 |
| P/FCF | 14.65 | 9.75 | 2.59 | 35.16 | 13.98 |
| P/FFO | 12.30 | 8.30 | 6.42 | 24.06 | 6.83 |
| P/TBV | 5.59 | 2.77 | 1.02 | 12.99 | 5.22 |
| P/AFFO | 15.02 | 14.97 | 7.76 | 29.20 | 7.75 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.95 | 1.85 | 0.62 | 6.70 | 2.35 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.73 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 1.98 | 0.77 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates LMB's fair value at $101.07 vs the current price of $99.17, implying +1.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $101.07 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $73.59 (P10) to $99.88 (P90), with a median of $86.60.
LMB's current P/E of 24.7x compares to the industry median of 32.1x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -23.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.9x over 6 years. Signal: Discount.
7 analysts cover LMB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $104.00 (range: $104.00 — $104.00), implying +4.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 7.5% is 3.2 percentage points above the 6-year average (4.4%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$49. (2) Multiple compression: LMB trades at the 1920th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (20.9×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LMB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (4.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5010.0% to approximately $49. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.