Lincoln National Corporation (LNC)
Valuation Overview•Is Lincoln National Corporation Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount across both intrinsic cash flow and relative peer multiples, indicating a strong margin of safety.
Moderate quality score of 50/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant growth concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
LNC demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($3.1B) and minimal debt risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-1.3% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 10.8%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.3B | +1.2% | -1.3% | +0.7% | +3.0% | |
| EBITDA | -$165.0M | — | -4.4% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$172.0M | -64.1% | -4.7% | — | +0.2% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.88 | -68.3% | -9.1% | +17.8% | +2.6% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $138.0M | +91.7% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 34.4% | 27.8% | 23.7% | 25.0% |
| Operating Margin | 10.8% | 6.6% | 11.1% | 9.3% |
| Net Margin | 9.1% | 6.1% | 9.4% | 8.8% |
| FCF Margin | 1.3% | -9.9% | -2.4% | 0.2% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $1.58 | $1.66 | +5.1% | ||
| Q1'26 | $1.86 | $2.21 | +18.8% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.84 | $2.04 | +10.9% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.91 | $2.36 | +23.6% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.54 | $1.60 | +3.9% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.87 | $1.91 | +2.1% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.64 | $2.06 | +25.6% | ||
| Q3'24 | $1.78 | $1.84 | +3.4% |
Total return is +17.5% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -7.5%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -15.4% | -24.7% | — |
| 1Y | +17.5% | -7.5% | +5.4% |
| 3YCAGR | +20.6% | +1.3% | +22.3% |
| 5YCAGR | -4.9% | -18.3% | +15.0% |
| 10YCAGR | +2.2% | -11.3% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) valuation, health, and returns.
Lincoln National Corporation is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +206.8% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $114.05)
Lincoln National Corporation has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $114.05 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $124.47 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $42.75 (implying +15.0% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Lincoln National Corporation displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 50/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 12.0%.
Lincoln National Corporation pays a 4.7% dividend yield, covered by a 28% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
Lincoln National Corporation's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +1.2% 1Y revenue growth and -68.3% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -1.3%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 28 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 92% of recent quarters with a 10-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +15.0% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Lincoln National Corporation include: -29.9% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.09x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.