MODEL VERDICT
Lincoln National Corporation (LNC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $37.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $36.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $36.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $36.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $34.20 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $267.06 | +611.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $69.79 | +86.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $67.09 | +78.8% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $80.97 | +115.7% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $267.06 | +611.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $58.62 | +56.2% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $101.56 | +170.6% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $133.93 | +256.9% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $134.62 | +258.7% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 4× | 6× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (13%) | $83 | $83 | $83 | $83 | $125 |
| Conservative (22%) | $90 | $90 | $90 | $90 | $134 |
| Base Case (33.3%) | $98 | $98 | $98 | $98 | $147 |
| Bull Case (45%) | $107 | $107 | $107 | $107 | $160 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.13 | 8.03 | 1.72 | 19.58 | 6.55 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.21 | 5.48 | 1.39 | 20.84 | 7.30 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.04 | 6.25 | 1.47 | 32.03 | 11.57 |
| P/FCF | 8.53 | 5.80 | 1.47 | 18.32 | 8.75 |
| P/FFO | 7.82 | 5.28 | 1.63 | 18.25 | 6.52 |
| P/TBV | 0.89 | 0.80 | 0.47 | 1.74 | 0.40 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.69 | 0.66 | 0.43 | 1.04 | 0.19 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.52 | 0.56 | 0.28 | 0.73 | 0.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates LNC's fair value at $134.62 vs the current price of $37.53, implying +258.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $134.62 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $106.40 (P10) to $155.47 (P90), with a median of $130.07.
LNC's current P/E of 2.0x compares to the industry median of 14.5x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -86.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.1x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
28 analysts cover LNC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $43.50 (range: $37.00 — $48.00), implying +15.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (9), Hold (16), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LNC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (6.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 14470.0% to approximately $92. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.