MODEL VERDICT
Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $270.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $257.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $251.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $256.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $265.54 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $267.98 | -0.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $358.01 | +32.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $451.67 | +67.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $332.63 | +23.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $304.05 | +12.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $307.28 | +13.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $416.30 | +54.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $375.19 | +38.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $447.98 | +65.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $316.73 | +17.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $335.21 | +24.1% | 100% | 78 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $176 | $226 | $276 | $326 | $376 |
| Conservative (7%) | $180 | $231 | $283 | $334 | $385 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $186 | $239 | $292 | $345 | $398 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $192 | $246 | $301 | $356 | $411 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.66 | 15.13 | 4.19 | 26.59 | 9.80 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.33 | 12.89 | 4.05 | 21.84 | 7.09 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.54 | 9.63 | 5.04 | 14.51 | 3.17 |
| P/FCF | 12.21 | 15.60 | 4.37 | 17.40 | 6.24 |
| P/FFO | 8.86 | 9.18 | 3.54 | 13.31 | 3.68 |
| P/TBV | 5.32 | 4.93 | 3.29 | 7.08 | 1.56 |
| P/AFFO | 15.04 | 13.57 | 4.32 | 28.70 | 10.47 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.21 | 4.89 | 3.27 | 6.83 | 1.45 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.89 | 1.69 | 1.13 | 3.12 | 0.65 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates LNG's fair value at $335.21 vs the current price of $270.06, implying +24.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $335.21 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $268.14 (P10) to $351.18 (P90), with a median of $308.63.
LNG's current P/E of 11.2x compares to the industry median of 18.7x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -40.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.7x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
27 analysts cover LNG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $265.38 (range: $220.00 — $340.00), implying -1.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (24), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LNG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (31.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6150.0% to approximately $436. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.