MODEL VERDICT
Alliant Energy Corporation (LNT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $72.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $71.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $71.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $68.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $65.02 | Below threshold | +2.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 38 industry peers | $56.68 | -21.6% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 36 industry peers | $39.35 | -45.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 31 industry peers | $67.84 | -6.2% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 38 analyst estimates | $61.28 | -15.3% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 36 industry peers | $3.69 | -94.9% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 21 industry peers | $15.06 | -79.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 37 industry peers | $11.25 | -84.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 38 industry peers | $56.68 | -21.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $51.34 | -29.0% | 100% | 90 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $63 | $69 | $74 | $80 | $85 |
| Conservative (5%) | $65 | $71 | $76 | $82 | $88 |
| Base Case (2.9%) | $64 | $69 | $75 | $80 | $86 |
| Bull Case (4%) | $64 | $70 | $75 | $81 | $87 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.10 | 20.86 | 18.45 | 23.48 | 1.95 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.68 | 22.19 | 19.92 | 26.31 | 2.46 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.53 | 14.56 | 13.03 | 16.02 | 0.99 |
| P/FFO | 10.43 | 10.34 | 9.42 | 11.58 | 0.86 |
| P/TBV | 2.22 | 2.18 | 1.92 | 2.57 | 0.22 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.22 | 2.18 | 1.92 | 2.57 | 0.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.52 | 3.58 | 2.79 | 4.20 | 0.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates LNT's fair value at $51.34 vs the current price of $72.34, implying -29.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $51.34 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $47.71 (P10) to $63.50 (P90), with a median of $54.87.
LNT's current P/E of 26.9x compares to the industry median of 21.1x (38 peers in the group). This represents a +27.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.1x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
23 analysts cover LNT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $74.57 (range: $67.00 — $78.00), implying +3.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 19.1% is 2.4 percentage points above the 7-year average (16.7%), with a Z-score of +1.8σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$50. (2) Multiple compression: LNT trades at the 7630th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (21.1×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LNT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.8σ, meaning margins are 1.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3160.0% to approximately $50. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.