MODEL VERDICT
NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $93.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $92.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $93.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $90.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $79.89 | Below threshold | +12.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 38 industry peers | $69.32 | -26.1% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 36 industry peers | $35.35 | -62.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 31 industry peers | $79.33 | -15.4% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 38 analyst estimates | $72.04 | -23.2% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 36 industry peers | $6.01 | -93.6% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 21 industry peers | $120.35 | +28.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 38 industry peers | $69.32 | -26.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $76.89 | -18.0% | 100% | 77 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 27× | 29× (Current) | 31× | 33× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $88 | $95 | $102 | $109 | $116 |
| Conservative (11%) | $92 | $99 | $106 | $113 | $121 |
| Base Case (17.3%) | $96 | $104 | $112 | $120 | $127 |
| Bull Case (23%) | $101 | $110 | $118 | $126 | $134 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 33.90 | 31.21 | 16.87 | 52.13 | 14.29 |
| EV/EBIT | 35.96 | 28.62 | 18.27 | 53.61 | 14.06 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.37 | 17.25 | 11.83 | 33.44 | 7.21 |
| P/FFO | 15.75 | 14.26 | 9.16 | 23.65 | 5.38 |
| P/TBV | 3.31 | 3.21 | 2.36 | 4.59 | 0.79 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.95 | 2.84 | 2.09 | 4.03 | 0.67 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.10 | 6.12 | 4.39 | 10.79 | 2.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates NEE's fair value at $76.89 vs the current price of $93.77, implying -18.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $76.89 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $62.74 (P10) to $90.41 (P90), with a median of $75.92.
NEE's current P/E of 28.5x compares to the industry median of 21.1x (38 peers in the group). This represents a +35.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 33.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
36 analysts cover NEE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $93.27 (range: $84.00 — $106.00), implying -0.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (23), Hold (12), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NEE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (22.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 630.0% to approximately $100. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.