MODEL VERDICT
National Grid plc (NGG) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $93.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $90.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $92.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $88.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $80.12 | Below threshold | +10.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 38 industry peers | $62.16 | -33.7% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 36 industry peers | $91.30 | -2.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 31 industry peers | $55.12 | -41.2% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 38 analyst estimates | $72.62 | -22.6% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 36 industry peers | $16.72 | -82.2% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 21 industry peers | $58.85 | -37.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 37 industry peers | $68.62 | -26.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 38 industry peers | $62.16 | -33.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $73.55 | -21.6% | 100% | 83 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $61 | $68 | $74 | $80 | $86 |
| Conservative (7%) | $63 | $69 | $76 | $82 | $88 |
| Base Case (10.4%) | $65 | $72 | $78 | $85 | $91 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $67 | $74 | $81 | $87 | $94 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.61 | 26.22 | 6.41 | 32.79 | 9.12 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.35 | 20.05 | 17.62 | 34.14 | 6.21 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.47 | 14.63 | 13.27 | 23.00 | 3.61 |
| P/FCF | 477.60 | 87.24 | 62.41 | 1283.16 | 697.75 |
| P/FFO | 12.58 | 12.87 | 5.11 | 18.18 | 4.21 |
| P/TBV | 3.32 | 3.21 | 2.94 | 3.95 | 0.37 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.00 | 2.01 | 1.64 | 2.58 | 0.32 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.99 | 2.85 | 2.31 | 4.13 | 0.71 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates NGG's fair value at $73.55 vs the current price of $93.77, implying -21.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $73.55 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $65.94 (P10) to $91.60 (P90), with a median of $78.25.
NGG's current P/E of 23.6x compares to the industry median of 21.1x (38 peers in the group). This represents a +12.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.6x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
20 analysts cover NGG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $85.50 (range: $85.50 — $85.50), implying -8.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NGG trades at the 6320th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (23.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NGG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1050.0% to approximately $84. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.