MODEL VERDICT
Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $130.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $126.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $128.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $123.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $116.80 | Below threshold | +4.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 38 industry peers | $133.61 | +2.1% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 36 industry peers | $94.94 | -27.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 38 analyst estimates | $120.17 | -8.2% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 18 industry peers | $46.62 | -64.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 36 industry peers | $23.82 | -81.8% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 21 industry peers | $395.57 | +202.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 37 industry peers | $9.81 | -92.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 38 industry peers | $133.61 | +2.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $130.81 | -0.0% | 100% | 82 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $120 | $134 | $148 | $162 | $176 |
| Conservative (19%) | $128 | $143 | $158 | $173 | $188 |
| Base Case (29.7%) | $139 | $155 | $172 | $188 | $205 |
| Bull Case (40%) | $150 | $168 | $186 | $203 | $221 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.76 | 18.87 | 17.87 | 53.23 | 13.18 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.36 | 20.45 | 19.44 | 43.55 | 8.67 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.41 | 12.19 | 11.72 | 13.31 | 0.68 |
| P/FFO | 8.29 | 8.07 | 7.21 | 9.85 | 1.01 |
| P/TBV | 2.47 | 2.44 | 2.26 | 2.68 | 0.15 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.53 | 1.53 | 1.37 | 1.72 | 0.12 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.82 | 2.76 | 2.57 | 3.28 | 0.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates DUK's fair value at $130.81 vs the current price of $130.85, implying -0.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $130.81 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $90.21 (P10) to $141.01 (P90), with a median of $114.30.
DUK's current P/E of 20.7x compares to the industry median of 21.2x (38 peers in the group). This represents a -2.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.8x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
31 analysts cover DUK with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $133.45 (range: $115.00 — $143.00), implying +2.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (19), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DUK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 40.0% to approximately $130. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.