MODEL VERDICT
Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $83.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $81.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $81.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $76.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $74.26 | Below threshold | +2.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 38 industry peers | $72.48 | -13.1% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 36 industry peers | $50.61 | -39.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 31 industry peers | $73.90 | -11.3% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 38 analyst estimates | $74.25 | -10.9% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 36 industry peers | $0.59 | -99.3% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 21 industry peers | $35.93 | -56.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 37 industry peers | $24.77 | -70.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 38 industry peers | $72.48 | -13.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $62.26 | -25.3% | 100% | 90 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $70 | $77 | $84 | $91 | $98 |
| Conservative (5%) | $72 | $79 | $87 | $94 | $101 |
| Base Case (5.4%) | $73 | $80 | $87 | $94 | $102 |
| Bull Case (7%) | $74 | $81 | $89 | $96 | $103 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.69 | 22.12 | 19.29 | 24.05 | 2.04 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.27 | 25.05 | 20.19 | 26.09 | 2.02 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.87 | 12.93 | 11.34 | 13.71 | 0.85 |
| P/FFO | 8.94 | 8.94 | 7.88 | 10.14 | 0.94 |
| P/TBV | 2.21 | 2.30 | 1.94 | 2.49 | 0.23 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.21 | 2.30 | 1.94 | 2.49 | 0.23 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.65 | 2.72 | 2.18 | 3.05 | 0.30 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates XEL's fair value at $62.26 vs the current price of $83.36, implying -25.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $62.26 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $57.59 (P10) to $77.71 (P90), with a median of $66.66.
XEL's current P/E of 24.2x compares to the industry median of 21.1x (38 peers in the group). This represents a +15.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.7x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
26 analysts cover XEL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $89.50 (range: $82.00 — $95.00), implying +7.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (8), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 13.5% is 1.2 percentage points above the 7-year average (12.3%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$68. (2) Multiple compression: XEL trades at the 6840th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (21.7×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that XEL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1860.0% to approximately $68. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.