MODEL VERDICT
Lantheus Holdings, Inc. (LNTH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $85.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $84.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $83.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $83.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $80.59 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $119.98 | +40.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $141.31 | +65.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $145.62 | +70.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $168.75 | +97.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $116.33 | +36.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $172.87 | +102.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $141.29 | +65.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $137.43 | +60.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $141.02 | +64.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $168.75 | +97.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $152.51 | +78.4% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $74 | $82 | $89 | $96 | $103 |
| Conservative (7%) | $76 | $84 | $91 | $98 | $105 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $79 | $86 | $94 | $101 | $109 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $81 | $89 | $97 | $104 | $112 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 41.35 | 20.52 | 13.33 | 127.40 | 48.31 |
| EV/EBIT | 33.82 | 13.57 | 9.88 | 111.17 | 43.48 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.51 | 12.97 | 10.03 | 44.81 | 16.74 |
| P/FCF | 43.33 | 14.11 | 12.87 | 186.20 | 64.17 |
| P/FFO | 29.00 | 17.63 | 11.26 | 65.11 | 21.96 |
| P/TBV | 22.16 | 9.18 | 7.23 | 50.96 | 18.15 |
| P/AFFO | 30.00 | 21.55 | 12.80 | 62.47 | 20.09 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.18 | 5.34 | 1.42 | 8.05 | 2.19 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.35 | 3.36 | 2.15 | 4.59 | 0.91 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates LNTH's fair value at $152.51 vs the current price of $85.50, implying +78.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $152.51 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $119.08 (P10) to $190.23 (P90), with a median of $151.70.
LNTH's current P/E of 25.1x compares to the industry median of 42.7x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -41.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 41.3x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
17 analysts cover LNTH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $101.00 (range: $95.00 — $110.00), implying +18.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LNTH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (7.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1910.0% to approximately $69. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.