MODEL VERDICT
Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $97.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $97.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $97.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $97.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $97.97 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $291.37 | +197.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $144.85 | +47.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 2 industry peers | $242.47 | +147.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $61.79 | -36.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $130.11 | +32.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $24.49 | -75.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $11.16 | -88.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $46.51 | -52.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 2 industry peers | $98.05 | +0.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $62.38 | -36.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $150.19 | +53.3% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $88 | $96 | $103 | $111 | $119 |
| Conservative (7%) | $90 | $98 | $106 | $114 | $121 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $93 | $101 | $109 | $117 | $125 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $96 | $104 | $113 | $121 | $129 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.37 | 23.47 | 17.73 | 46.92 | 15.47 |
| EV/EBIT | 43.76 | 46.13 | 16.22 | 79.95 | 23.28 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.41 | 12.41 | 10.99 | 60.66 | 18.44 |
| P/FCF | 15.86 | 12.74 | 9.54 | 23.26 | 6.28 |
| P/FFO | 7.66 | 7.28 | 1.36 | 13.96 | 4.56 |
| P/AFFO | 15.31 | 19.51 | 1.44 | 25.04 | 9.25 |
| P/B Ratio | 9.05 | 9.98 | 4.79 | 12.36 | 3.87 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.03 | 2.32 | 0.48 | 3.04 | 0.92 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates LNW's fair value at $150.19 vs the current price of $97.97, implying +53.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $150.19 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $131.70 (P10) to $199.18 (P90), with a median of $163.10.
LNW's current P/E of 26.6x compares to the industry median of 65.9x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -59.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.4x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover LNW with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $205.00 (range: $190.00 — $220.00), implying +109.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (6), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 12.4% is 16.1 percentage points above the 3-year average (7.7%), with a Z-score of +1.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$67. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LNW's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (7.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3120.0% to approximately $67. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.