MODEL VERDICT
Loar Holdings Inc. (LOAR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $55.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $57.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $67.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $65.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $64.32 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $32.00 | -42.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $48.14 | -13.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $35.37 | -36.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $40.10 | -27.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $46.19 | -16.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $47.70 | -13.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $26.03 | -53.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $23.61 | -57.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $35.35 | -36.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $38.33 | -30.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $36.42 | -34.2% | 100% | 57 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 62× | 68× | 74× (Current) | 80× | 86× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $48 | $53 | $58 | $62 | $67 |
| Conservative (7%) | $50 | $54 | $59 | $64 | $69 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $51 | $56 | $61 | $66 | $71 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $53 | $58 | $63 | $68 | $73 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates LOAR's fair value at $36.42 vs the current price of $55.37, implying -34.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 57/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $36.42 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $35.44 (P10) to $43.06 (P90), with a median of $39.24.
LOAR's current P/E of 73.8x compares to the industry median of 47.2x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +56.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
3 analysts cover LOAR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $94.00 (range: $90.00 — $98.00), implying +69.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 57/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 14.5% is 3.5 percentage points above the 7-year average (20.0%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$76. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LOAR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (20.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3740.0% to approximately $76. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.