MODEL VERDICT
Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. (LOB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $37.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $37.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $37.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $36.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $35.71 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $30.14 | -18.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $34.02 | -8.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $43.59 | +17.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $4.94 | -86.7% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $30.16 | -18.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $36.83 | -0.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $41.37 | +11.3% | 100% | 81 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $30 | $35 | $39 | $44 | $48 |
| Conservative (6%) | $31 | $35 | $40 | $45 | $49 |
| Base Case (9.2%) | $32 | $36 | $41 | $46 | $51 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $32 | $37 | $42 | $47 | $52 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.89 | 23.53 | 7.70 | 43.20 | 11.55 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.62 | 18.02 | 5.16 | 67.97 | 21.50 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.37 | 14.34 | 4.48 | 46.63 | 14.23 |
| P/FCF | 8.80 | 7.41 | 3.58 | 16.80 | 6.38 |
| P/FFO | 17.82 | 20.54 | 6.88 | 24.41 | 6.09 |
| P/TBV | 2.50 | 1.81 | 1.27 | 5.50 | 1.52 |
| P/AFFO | 160.79 | 32.91 | 8.85 | 970.69 | 357.33 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.50 | 1.81 | 1.27 | 5.50 | 1.52 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.50 | 2.67 | 1.53 | 7.77 | 2.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates LOB's fair value at $41.37 vs the current price of $37.17, implying +11.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $41.37 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $33.06 (P10) to $50.49 (P90), with a median of $41.40.
LOB's current P/E of 16.7x compares to the industry median of 13.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +23.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.9x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
9 analysts cover LOB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $41.00 (range: $41.00 — $41.00), implying +10.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LOB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 15020.0% to approximately $93. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.