MODEL VERDICT
Stride, Inc. (LRN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $93.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $98.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $98.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $94.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $90.21 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $104.40 | +12.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $153.79 | +65.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $106.30 | +14.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $103.15 | +10.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $114.95 | +23.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $143.08 | +53.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $943.05 | +913.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $105.11 | +12.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $113.37 | +21.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $105.93 | +13.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $102.54 | +10.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $152.87 | +64.2% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (23%) | $88 | $103 | $117 | $132 | $147 |
| Conservative (38%) | $98 | $115 | $131 | $148 | $164 |
| Base Case (58.2%) | $113 | $132 | $151 | $169 | $188 |
| Bull Case (79%) | $128 | $149 | $170 | $191 | $213 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.39 | 19.99 | 10.91 | 35.38 | 8.02 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.47 | 13.03 | 7.39 | 27.30 | 6.42 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.88 | 7.36 | 4.92 | 12.67 | 2.66 |
| P/FCF | 15.39 | 17.04 | 8.43 | 24.37 | 6.42 |
| P/FFO | 9.23 | 8.64 | 6.47 | 14.42 | 2.63 |
| P/TBV | 3.78 | 3.68 | 1.97 | 6.17 | 1.47 |
| P/AFFO | 9.45 | 8.83 | 6.80 | 14.52 | 2.58 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.09 | 1.73 | 1.28 | 3.85 | 0.92 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.18 | 0.91 | 0.79 | 2.22 | 0.52 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates LRN's fair value at $152.87 vs the current price of $93.08, implying +64.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $152.87 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $105.35 (P10) to $127.18 (P90), with a median of $116.15.
LRN's current P/E of 15.6x compares to the industry median of 17.9x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -12.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.4x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
17 analysts cover LRN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $109.50 (range: $94.00 — $125.00), implying +17.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (10), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 12.2% is 5.6 percentage points above the 7-year average (6.6%), with a Z-score of +1.6σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$65. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LRN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2970.0% to approximately $65. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.