MODEL VERDICT
Lattice Semiconductor Corporation (LSCC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $120.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $122.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $117.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $108.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $106.10 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $70.05 | -42.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $14.00 | -88.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $0.86 | -99.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $65.22 | -46.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $16.87 | -86.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $68.57 | -43.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $0.32 | -99.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $37.66 | -68.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $36.96 | -69.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $0.86 | -99.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $57.04 | -52.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $49.92 | -58.7% | 100% | 59 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5080× | 5564× | 6048× (Current) | 6532× | 7016× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $104 | $114 | $124 | $134 | $144 |
| Conservative (5%) | $107 | $117 | $127 | $137 | $147 |
| Base Case (6.6%) | $108 | $119 | $129 | $139 | $150 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $111 | $121 | $132 | $142 | $153 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 600.82 | 115.01 | 37.29 | 3679.00 | 1357.92 |
| EV/EBIT | 165.36 | 106.92 | 44.51 | 659.45 | 221.00 |
| EV/EBITDA | 80.16 | 77.69 | 27.40 | 198.47 | 58.29 |
| P/FCF | 57.17 | 65.36 | 24.21 | 81.36 | 21.44 |
| P/FFO | 87.43 | 72.96 | 31.91 | 263.75 | 81.12 |
| P/TBV | 58.46 | 49.41 | 20.04 | 164.73 | 49.71 |
| P/AFFO | 67.49 | 69.18 | 36.12 | 97.53 | 29.28 |
| P/B Ratio | 15.69 | 14.67 | 8.02 | 26.61 | 5.98 |
| P/S Ratio | 15.05 | 15.38 | 6.50 | 21.26 | 4.78 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates LSCC's fair value at $49.92 vs the current price of $120.96, implying -58.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 59/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $49.92 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $49.27 (P10) to $71.51 (P90), with a median of $60.31.
LSCC's current P/E of 6048.0x compares to the industry median of 43.1x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +13947.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 600.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
17 analysts cover LSCC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $106.70 (range: $80.00 — $130.00), implying -11.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (1), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 59/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: LSCC trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (600.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LSCC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (17.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 18790.0% to approximately $348. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.