MODEL VERDICT
LTC Properties, Inc. (LTC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $39.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $38.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $39.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $38.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $35.48 | Below threshold | +5.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 15 industry peers | $75.49 | +90.2% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 16 industry peers | $42.50 | +7.1% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $177.47 | +347.3% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $64.88 | +63.5% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $32.55 | -18.0% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 15 industry peers | $33.19 | -16.4% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $64.79 | +63.3% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $31 | $36 | $41 | $46 | $51 |
| Conservative (5%) | $32 | $37 | $42 | $48 | $53 |
| Base Case (0.8%) | $30 | $36 | $41 | $46 | $51 |
| Bull Case (1%) | $31 | $36 | $41 | $46 | $51 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.46 | 16.08 | 13.64 | 24.21 | 4.10 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.19 | 16.52 | 14.57 | 24.57 | 3.70 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.85 | 17.11 | 9.04 | 22.07 | 4.13 |
| P/FCF | 13.47 | 13.20 | 11.77 | 14.96 | 1.31 |
| P/FFO | 11.93 | 11.37 | 10.27 | 14.87 | 1.89 |
| P/TBV | 1.71 | 1.67 | 1.38 | 2.27 | 0.32 |
| P/AFFO | 12.57 | 11.40 | 11.08 | 15.23 | 2.31 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.71 | 1.67 | 1.38 | 2.27 | 0.32 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.01 | 8.13 | 6.09 | 9.61 | 1.37 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates LTC's fair value at $64.79 vs the current price of $39.68, implying +63.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $64.79 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $46.89 (P10) to $63.85 (P90), with a median of $55.15.
LTC's current P/E of 15.7x compares to the industry median of 70.4x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -77.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.5x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
22 analysts cover LTC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $37.00 (range: $36.00 — $39.00), implying -6.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (12), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LTC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (46.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1590.0% to approximately $46. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.