MODEL VERDICT
LTC Properties, Inc. (LTC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $38.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $38.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $39.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $39.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $39.94 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 9 REIT peers | $53.38 | +38.6% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $74.75 | +94.2% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $49.42 | +28.4% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $236.71 | +514.8% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $65.04 | +68.9% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $40.50 | +5.2% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $40.50 | +5.2% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $68.01 | +76.6% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $28 | $33 | $39 | $44 | $49 |
| Conservative (5%) | $29 | $34 | $40 | $45 | $50 |
| Base Case (0.8%) | $28 | $33 | $38 | $43 | $48 |
| Bull Case (1%) | $28 | $33 | $38 | $43 | $48 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.46 | 16.08 | 13.64 | 24.21 | 4.10 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.19 | 16.52 | 14.57 | 24.57 | 3.70 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.85 | 17.11 | 9.04 | 22.07 | 4.13 |
| P/FCF | 13.47 | 13.20 | 11.77 | 14.96 | 1.31 |
| P/FFO | 11.93 | 11.37 | 10.27 | 14.87 | 1.89 |
| P/TBV | 1.71 | 1.67 | 1.38 | 2.27 | 0.32 |
| P/AFFO | 12.57 | 11.40 | 11.08 | 15.23 | 2.31 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.71 | 1.67 | 1.38 | 2.27 | 0.32 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.01 | 8.13 | 6.09 | 9.61 | 1.37 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates LTC's fair value at $68.01 vs the current price of $38.50, implying +76.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $68.01 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $52.43 (P10) to $71.36 (P90), with a median of $61.84.
LTC's current P/E of 15.3x compares to the industry median of 93.9x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -83.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.5x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
22 analysts cover LTC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $36.00 (range: $36.00 — $36.00), implying -6.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (12), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LTC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (46.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1940.0% to approximately $46. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.