MODEL VERDICT
Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $25.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $25.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $27.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $23.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $23.57 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $69.79 | +172.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $64.97 | +153.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $51.69 | +101.8% | 100% | 44 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/S Ratio | 3.89 | 2.40 | 0.82 | 9.22 | 3.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates LUNR's fair value at $51.69 vs the current price of $25.62, implying +101.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 44/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $51.69 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $46.16 (P10) to $69.90 (P90), with a median of $57.93.
LUNR's current P/E of -36.6x compares to the industry median of 19.8x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -284.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover LUNR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $24.10 (range: $16.00 — $35.00), implying -5.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (1), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 44/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for LUNR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.