MODEL VERDICT
Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $53.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $52.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $57.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $56.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $53.45 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $62.67 | +16.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $60.32 | +12.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $42.55 | -20.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $31.16 | -42.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $53.79 | +0.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $39.69 | -26.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $26.04 | -51.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $30.44 | -43.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $42.49 | -21.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $30.63 | -43.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $85.92 | +59.7% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 19× | 21× | 23× (Current) | 25× | 27× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $46 | $51 | $56 | $61 | $66 |
| Conservative (7%) | $48 | $53 | $58 | $63 | $68 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $49 | $54 | $59 | $65 | $70 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $51 | $56 | $61 | $67 | $72 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.10 | 26.95 | 19.73 | 30.76 | 4.65 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.34 | 17.90 | 14.14 | 19.40 | 2.25 |
| EV/EBITDA | 54.81 | 12.52 | 12.32 | 174.41 | 69.26 |
| P/FCF | 24.19 | 25.18 | 19.11 | 27.27 | 3.84 |
| P/FFO | 451.81 | 14.51 | 13.18 | 2295.39 | 913.68 |
| P/TBV | 14.67 | 12.90 | 8.23 | 33.14 | 8.41 |
| P/AFFO | 24.94 | 25.86 | 18.71 | 29.32 | 5.21 |
| P/B Ratio | 12.62 | 11.98 | 8.18 | 23.32 | 5.05 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.58 | 4.39 | 3.35 | 15.49 | 4.45 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates LVS's fair value at $85.92 vs the current price of $53.79, implying +59.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $85.92 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $46.81 (P10) to $147.50 (P90), with a median of $83.92.
LVS's current P/E of 22.9x compares to the industry median of 18.1x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +26.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 26.1x over 4 years. Signal: Premium.
49 analysts cover LVS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $69.70 (range: $63.00 — $80.00), implying +29.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (30), Hold (19), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LVS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (3.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7010.0% to approximately $16. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.