MODEL VERDICT
Lifeway Foods, Inc. (LWAY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $27.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $27.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $25.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $24.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $23.77 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $17.40 | -35.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $14.94 | -44.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $21.47 | -20.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $15.93 | -41.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $30.73 | +13.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $15.86 | -41.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $14.43 | -46.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $21.43 | -20.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.08 | -22.2% | 100% | 71 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (13%) | $26 | $28 | $30 | $32 | $34 |
| Conservative (22%) | $28 | $30 | $33 | $35 | $37 |
| Base Case (33.5%) | $31 | $33 | $36 | $38 | $40 |
| Bull Case (45%) | $34 | $36 | $39 | $41 | $44 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 42.65 | 27.22 | 17.88 | 94.39 | 28.74 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.72 | 20.98 | 11.29 | 42.44 | 10.60 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.13 | 16.81 | 8.09 | 22.16 | 5.86 |
| P/FCF | 48.25 | 19.46 | 11.94 | 162.15 | 58.53 |
| P/FFO | 17.31 | 13.94 | 8.30 | 30.50 | 7.69 |
| P/TBV | 3.79 | 3.07 | 1.04 | 7.03 | 2.08 |
| P/AFFO | 54.83 | 19.27 | 12.04 | 195.15 | 71.57 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.69 | 1.83 | 0.73 | 5.26 | 1.67 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.07 | 0.84 | 0.34 | 2.03 | 0.64 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates LWAY's fair value at $21.08 vs the current price of $27.10, implying -22.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 71/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.08 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.33 (P10) to $24.74 (P90), with a median of $19.90.
LWAY's current P/E of 30.4x compares to the industry median of 24.1x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +26.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 42.6x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
6 analysts cover LWAY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $35.00 (range: $35.00 — $35.00), implying +29.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 71/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 6.5% is 2.9 percentage points above the 7-year average (3.6%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$21. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LWAY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (3.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2150.0% to approximately $21. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.