MODEL VERDICT
LSI Industries Inc. (LYTS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $23.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $22.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $20.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $19.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $19.07 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $16.91 | -29.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $25.42 | +6.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $16.43 | -31.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $24.31 | +1.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $16.71 | -30.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $24.86 | +4.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $15.89 | -33.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $25.77 | +7.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $28.15 | +17.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $19.17 | -19.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $23.26 | -2.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $24.43 | +2.3% | 100% | 94 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $22 | $24 | $25 | $27 | $29 |
| Conservative (11%) | $23 | $25 | $26 | $28 | $30 |
| Base Case (17.0%) | $24 | $26 | $28 | $30 | $31 |
| Bull Case (23%) | $25 | $27 | $29 | $31 | $33 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.62 | 23.29 | 16.00 | 32.67 | 5.31 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.00 | 18.57 | 12.34 | 32.70 | 6.80 |
| EV/EBITDA | 36.57 | 13.76 | 9.79 | 177.70 | 62.27 |
| P/FCF | 12.35 | 12.13 | 7.30 | 17.80 | 4.63 |
| P/FFO | 13.86 | 13.54 | 11.65 | 16.69 | 1.86 |
| P/TBV | 6.83 | 6.42 | 2.05 | 12.89 | 3.84 |
| P/AFFO | 15.82 | 15.45 | 12.81 | 19.74 | 2.36 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.07 | 2.32 | 1.32 | 2.86 | 0.57 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.48 | 1.24 | 0.25 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates LYTS's fair value at $24.43 vs the current price of $23.89, implying +2.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $24.43 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $17.13 (P10) to $36.90 (P90), with a median of $23.92.
LYTS's current P/E of 30.2x compares to the industry median of 20.8x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +45.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.6x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
5 analysts cover LYTS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $27.00 (range: $27.00 — $27.00), implying +13.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: LYTS trades at the 1880th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (23.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LYTS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (2.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5370.0% to approximately $11. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.