MODEL VERDICT
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $128.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $125.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $127.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $124.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $126.39 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 8 REIT peers | $106.83 | -16.9% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 5 REIT peers | $94.91 | -26.2% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $131.03 | +1.9% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $146.25 | +13.8% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $112.53 | -12.5% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $96.22 | -25.2% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $167.27 | +30.1% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $150.83 | +17.3% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $133.11 | +3.5% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $136.78 | +6.4% | 100% | 87 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 28× | 31× | 34× (Current) | 37× | 40× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $111 | $123 | $134 | $146 | $158 |
| Conservative (8%) | $114 | $126 | $138 | $150 | $163 |
| Base Case (11.5%) | $118 | $131 | $143 | $156 | $169 |
| Bull Case (16%) | $122 | $135 | $149 | $162 | $175 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 40.01 | 36.75 | 28.55 | 57.85 | 11.05 |
| EV/EBIT | 34.69 | 32.26 | 28.07 | 43.94 | 6.60 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.56 | 19.23 | 16.11 | 30.88 | 4.89 |
| P/FCF | 29.83 | 23.80 | 19.70 | 68.79 | 17.29 |
| P/FFO | 17.53 | 16.20 | 14.02 | 24.71 | 3.61 |
| P/TBV | 2.89 | 2.79 | 2.38 | 4.27 | 0.65 |
| P/AFFO | 26.31 | 22.94 | 20.17 | 47.39 | 9.55 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.89 | 2.79 | 2.38 | 4.27 | 0.65 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.27 | 8.64 | 7.30 | 14.84 | 2.59 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates MAA's fair value at $136.78 vs the current price of $128.56, implying +6.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $136.78 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $127.51 (P10) to $151.38 (P90), with a median of $139.02.
MAA's current P/E of 34.0x compares to the industry median of 25.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +33.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 40.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
37 analysts cover MAA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $143.71 (range: $134.00 — $158.00), implying +11.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (18), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MAA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (23.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5450.0% to approximately $199. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.