Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. (MARA)
Valuation Overview•Is Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Fragile underlying quality score of 26/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain cautious, with consensus price targets indicating limited room for upside expansion.
Verdict: Highly distressed profile flashing severe fundamental warning signs.
Wall Street is cautious, forecasting potential downside alongside robust expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
MARA struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company maintains stable top-line performance paired with stable bottom-line earnings. The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 16.9% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $174.6M | +38.2% | — | — | +47.2% | |
| EBITDA | -$57.3M | — | +56.4% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$1.3B | -342.3% | -23.6% | — | -54.5% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-3.31 | -314.5% | — | — | +15.2% | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$327.0M | +66.4% | -12.8% | -27.9% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 0.3% | -25.3% | -6.2% | -196.0% |
| Operating Margin | 16.9% | 4.3% | -119.0% | -472.3% |
| Net Margin | -234.8% | 1.8% | -121.5% | -807.2% |
| FCF Margin | -44.4% | -88.3% | -181.3% | -622.3% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $-0.46 | $-0.61 | -32.6% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.23 | $-0.46 | -100.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $-0.26 | $-0.32 | -23.1% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-0.53 | $-0.81 | -52.8% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-0.34 | $-0.40 | -17.6% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-0.32 | $1.24 | +487.5% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-0.34 | $-0.38 | -12.5% | ||
| Q3'24 | $-0.23 | $-0.24 | -4.3% |
Total return is -1.9% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -26.9%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +43.5% | +34.2% | — |
| 1Y | -1.9% | -26.9% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +6.7% | -13.6% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -13.2% | -26.7% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -9.5% | -23.9% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. (MARA) valuation, health, and returns.
Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. is estimated to be fair under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Limited: Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $14.52)
Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $14.52 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $53.77 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $12.50 (implying -12.1% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 26/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -9.0%.
Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 0.9% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by +13.9% in the last 12 months.
Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +38.2% 1Y revenue growth and -314.5% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 20 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 8% of recent quarters with a -5-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -12.1% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. include: -70.5% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (3.28x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 3.28x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.