MODEL VERDICT
Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. (MARA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $11.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $7.97 | Pending | +48.6% |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $7.92 | Pending | +32.2% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $7.66 | Pending | +24.5% |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $10.22 | Monitoring | -6.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $31.28 | +172.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $36.27 | +216.5% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $26.33 | +129.8% | 100% | 64 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 2.26 | 2.28 | 0.92 | 4.79 | 1.37 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.16 | 1.61 | 0.92 | 4.79 | 1.39 |
| P/S Ratio | 35.28 | 7.97 | 3.30 | 195.07 | 70.72 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 6 valuation metrics, the model estimates MARA's fair value at $26.33 vs the current price of $11.46, implying +129.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $26.33 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $20.49 (P10) to $36.27 (P90), with a median of $28.18.
MARA's current P/E of -3.1x compares to the industry median of 11.6x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -126.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
19 analysts cover MARA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $16.13 (range: $8.50 — $30.00), implying +40.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MARA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.