MODEL VERDICT
Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. (MARA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $7.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $7.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $7.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $10.22 | Pending | -21.1% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $11.52 | Pending | -30.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 2.48 | 2.51 | 1.01 | 4.79 | 1.35 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.36 | 2.17 | 1.01 | 4.79 | 1.40 |
| P/S Ratio | 35.28 | 7.97 | 3.30 | 195.07 | 70.72 |
Insufficient data to determine relative valuation for MARA.
Fair value could not be computed for MARA due to insufficient comparable data.
MARA's current P/E of -2.4x compares to the industry median of 26.9x (36 peers in the group). This represents a -109.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
18 analysts cover MARA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $18.00 (range: $8.00 — $30.00), implying +101.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 53/100, based on: data completeness (0), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MARA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.