MODEL VERDICT
Masco Corporation (MAS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $71.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $74.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $66.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $63.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $62.97 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $93.91 | +31.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $89.64 | +25.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $87.98 | +23.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $121.17 | +70.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $95.08 | +33.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $122.03 | +71.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $56.72 | -20.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $120.25 | +68.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $117.80 | +65.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $87.81 | +23.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $121.17 | +70.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $88.24 | +23.9% | 100% | 83 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $55 | $63 | $71 | $79 | $87 |
| Conservative (5%) | $57 | $65 | $73 | $81 | $89 |
| Base Case (5.0%) | $57 | $65 | $73 | $81 | $89 |
| Bull Case (7%) | $58 | $66 | $74 | $82 | $91 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.22 | 18.13 | 12.86 | 43.35 | 10.14 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.86 | 13.21 | 10.62 | 24.84 | 4.62 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.61 | 11.96 | 9.41 | 12.69 | 1.10 |
| P/FCF | 17.61 | 17.52 | 12.94 | 21.98 | 3.02 |
| P/FFO | 17.69 | 16.35 | 10.97 | 31.64 | 6.71 |
| P/AFFO | 22.10 | 19.77 | 14.19 | 41.08 | 8.87 |
| P/B Ratio | 142.15 | 154.09 | 34.45 | 225.96 | 81.70 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.87 | 2.02 | 1.25 | 2.10 | 0.30 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates MAS's fair value at $88.24 vs the current price of $71.24, implying +23.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $88.24 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $85.93 (P10) to $101.03 (P90), with a median of $93.41.
MAS's current P/E of 18.5x compares to the industry median of 22.8x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -19.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.2x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
38 analysts cover MAS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $82.36 (range: $72.00 — $97.00), implying +15.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (21), Hold (15), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MAS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6210.0% to approximately $116. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.