MODEL VERDICT
Mattel, Inc. (MAT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $14.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $14.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $15.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $14.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $14.64 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $21.51 | +44.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 3 industry peers | $25.16 | +68.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 2 industry peers | $28.49 | +90.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $22.29 | +49.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $27.27 | +82.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $23.75 | +59.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $37.81 | +153.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 3 industry peers | $38.39 | +157.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 3 industry peers | $34.54 | +131.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 2 industry peers | $25.99 | +74.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $22.45 | +50.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $27.56 | +84.6% | 100% | 76 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $11 | $14 | $17 | $19 | $22 |
| Conservative (19%) | $12 | $15 | $18 | $21 | $24 |
| Base Case (28.8%) | $13 | $16 | $19 | $22 | $26 |
| Bull Case (39%) | $14 | $17 | $21 | $24 | $28 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.21 | 16.11 | 8.52 | 49.86 | 15.70 |
| EV/EBIT | 37.35 | 13.66 | 9.96 | 175.21 | 60.91 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.63 | 10.30 | 7.86 | 25.75 | 6.19 |
| P/FCF | 27.46 | 23.05 | 9.50 | 72.57 | 22.02 |
| P/FFO | 36.04 | 11.16 | 6.79 | 182.01 | 64.51 |
| P/TBV | 15.67 | 14.90 | 7.49 | 25.40 | 7.82 |
| P/AFFO | 17.27 | 15.43 | 7.83 | 30.73 | 8.59 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.17 | 3.14 | 2.69 | 9.98 | 3.22 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.22 | 1.18 | 1.04 | 1.41 | 0.12 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates MAT's fair value at $27.56 vs the current price of $14.93, implying +84.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 76/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $27.56 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $23.01 (P10) to $35.37 (P90), with a median of $28.42.
MAT's current P/E of 12.0x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -47.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.2x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
34 analysts cover MAT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $19.29 (range: $16.00 — $28.00), implying +29.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (14), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 76/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (18), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MAT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (10.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9930.0% to approximately $30. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.