MODEL VERDICT
Matthews International Corporation (MATW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $28.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $28.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $27.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $26.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $27.22 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $11.46 | -59.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $3.95 | -86.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $95.71 | +234.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $86.27 | +201.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $20.12 | -29.7% | 100% | 54 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 87.97 | 41.36 | 20.46 | 248.71 | 108.81 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.72 | 9.65 | 9.37 | 16.77 | 2.69 |
| P/FCF | 17.93 | 13.70 | 6.30 | 39.64 | 12.44 |
| P/FFO | 47.98 | 22.71 | 8.44 | 225.83 | 78.80 |
| P/AFFO | 43.79 | 42.18 | 11.49 | 79.32 | 36.34 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.83 | 1.84 | 1.50 | 2.18 | 0.23 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.48 | 0.78 | 0.10 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 10 valuation metrics, the model estimates MATW's fair value at $20.12 vs the current price of $28.61, implying -29.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 54/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $20.12 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.96 (P10) to $25.19 (P90), with a median of $18.32.
MATW's current P/E of -36.2x compares to the industry median of 22.1x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -264.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
10 analysts cover MATW with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 54/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MATW.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.