Middlefield Banc Corp. (MBCN)
Valuation Overview•Is Middlefield Banc Corp. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a premium valuation multiple over its peers, likely pricing in superior execution.
Moderate quality score of 48/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain cautious, with consensus price targets indicating limited room for upside expansion.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant solvency concerns.
Wall Street is cautious, forecasting potential downside. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
MBCN demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company maintains stable top-line performance however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 20.9% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $24.6M | +3.5% | — | — | +13.2% | |
| EBITDA | $4.0M | — | +7.2% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $3.1M | +25.1% | +7.4% | — | +11.0% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.38 | +24.5% | -2.6% | +12.8% | +3.5% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.00 | -100.0% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 65.8% | 65.9% | 76.3% | 77.6% |
| Operating Margin | 20.9% | 19.7% | 25.6% | 25.0% |
| Net Margin | 17.3% | 16.5% | 21.2% | 20.3% |
| FCF Margin | 15.7% | 18.7% | 22.6% | 22.1% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.62 | $0.60 | -3.2% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.60 | $0.38 | -36.7% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.64 | $0.65 | +1.6% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.57 | $0.76 | +33.3% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.48 | $0.60 | +25.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | — | $0.60 | — | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.47 | $0.29 | -38.3% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.40 | $0.52 | +30.0% |
Total return is +12.9% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -7.9%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -0.2% | -7.6% | — |
| 1Y | +12.9% | -7.9% | +2.1% |
| 3YCAGR | +10.1% | -9.4% | +8.5% |
| 5YCAGR | +9.7% | -1.2% | +16.5% |
| 10YCAGR | +9.8% | -4.1% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Middlefield Banc Corp. (MBCN) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, Middlefield Banc Corp. appears Slightly expensive versus peers compared to industry peers.
Middlefield Banc Corp. has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $30.06 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $30.00 (implying -10.8% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Middlefield Banc Corp. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 48/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 4.3%.
Middlefield Banc Corp. pays a 2.4% dividend yield, covered by a 0% payout ratio with 8 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.3% buyback yield.
Middlefield Banc Corp.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +3.5% 1Y revenue growth and +24.5% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 3 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 58% of recent quarters with a -2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -10.8% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Middlefield Banc Corp. include: -18.3% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (1.34x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.34x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.