MODEL VERDICT
Barings Corporate Investors (MCI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $17.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $17.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $18.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $17.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $17.61 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $17.01 | -3.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $14.67 | -16.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $14.67 | -16.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $15.64 | -11.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $17.01 | -3.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $17.03 | -3.5% | 100% | 83 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $11 | $14 | $18 | $21 | $25 |
| Conservative (5%) | $11 | $15 | $18 | $22 | $26 |
| Base Case (-1.9%) | $10 | $14 | $17 | $21 | $24 |
| Bull Case (-3%) | $10 | $14 | $17 | $20 | $24 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.90 | 11.65 | 6.15 | 30.63 | 8.41 |
| EV/EBIT | 1245.41 | 12.13 | 3.89 | 8644.17 | 3262.55 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.03 | 11.58 | 10.39 | 22.55 | 5.71 |
| P/FCF | 35.45 | 14.73 | 7.03 | 114.86 | 41.53 |
| P/FFO | 13.52 | 10.92 | 10.06 | 22.17 | 5.82 |
| P/TBV | 1.01 | 1.01 | 0.85 | 1.21 | 0.13 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.01 | 1.01 | 0.85 | 1.21 | 0.13 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 12.13 | 9.57 | 5.85 | 26.72 | 7.04 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates MCI's fair value at $17.03 vs the current price of $17.64, implying -3.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $17.03 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.15 (P10) to $21.40 (P90), with a median of $18.13.
MCI's current P/E of 10.1x compares to the industry median of 9.7x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +3.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.9x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
No analyst coverage data is available for MCI.
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MCI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (84.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5160.0% to approximately $27. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.