MODEL VERDICT
McKesson Corporation (MCK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $814.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $828.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $866.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $863.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $865.60 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $494.83 | -39.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $609.09 | -25.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $664.06 | -18.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $650.52 | -20.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $645.02 | -20.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $962.69 | +18.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $5515.50 | +577.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $4761.82 | +485.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $4451.58 | +446.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $663.59 | -18.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $637.72 | -21.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1292.85 | +58.8% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 29× | 32× (Current) | 35× | 38× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (16%) | $773 | $862 | $952 | $1041 | $1130 |
| Conservative (25%) | $838 | $935 | $1032 | $1129 | $1225 |
| Base Case (39.0%) | $930 | $1037 | $1144 | $1251 | $1359 |
| Bull Case (53%) | $1021 | $1139 | $1257 | $1375 | $1492 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 162.75 | 33.51 | 18.49 | 813.65 | 319.07 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.88 | 24.86 | 14.03 | 36.50 | 7.82 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.52 | 12.89 | 7.92 | 21.32 | 5.05 |
| P/FCF | 13.80 | 14.31 | 7.84 | 21.07 | 5.38 |
| P/FFO | 22.52 | 23.87 | 14.91 | 27.76 | 5.57 |
| P/AFFO | 32.76 | 27.51 | 17.06 | 64.06 | 16.73 |
| P/B Ratio | 11.71 | 4.72 | 2.82 | 27.61 | 13.80 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.20 | 0.22 | 0.13 | 0.29 | 0.06 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates MCK's fair value at $1292.85 vs the current price of $814.02, implying +58.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1292.85 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $753.80 (P10) to $1874.74 (P90), with a median of $1129.45.
MCK's current P/E of 31.6x compares to the industry median of 25.8x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +22.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 162.8x over 6 years. Signal: Premium.
31 analysts cover MCK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $1006.50 (range: $966.00 — $1085.00), implying +23.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (24), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MCK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (0.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4700.0% to approximately $1197. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.