MODEL VERDICT
The Marcus Corporation (MCS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $17.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $18.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $19.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $19.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $19.03 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $11.78 | -33.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $22.10 | +25.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $14.87 | -15.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $0.50 | -97.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $2.99 | -83.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $47.43 | +169.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $36.78 | +109.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $12.77 | -27.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $0.50 | -97.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.23 | +20.8% | 100% | 76 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 37× | 40× | 43× (Current) | 46× | 49× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $16 | $17 | $18 | $20 | $21 |
| Conservative (7%) | $16 | $17 | $19 | $20 | $21 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $17 | $18 | $19 | $21 | $22 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $17 | $19 | $20 | $21 | $23 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 33.95 | 37.83 | 23.53 | 40.50 | 9.12 |
| EV/EBIT | 291.59 | 39.11 | 21.96 | 1307.16 | 567.94 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.25 | 10.74 | 8.59 | 34.48 | 9.98 |
| P/FCF | 93.27 | 15.99 | 8.04 | 482.52 | 190.83 |
| P/FFO | 10.12 | 8.44 | 5.76 | 19.42 | 4.92 |
| P/TBV | 1.45 | 1.51 | 1.01 | 1.85 | 0.31 |
| P/AFFO | 26.50 | 22.26 | 13.80 | 47.66 | 14.81 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.21 | 1.23 | 0.84 | 1.59 | 0.27 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.03 | 0.93 | 0.63 | 1.76 | 0.40 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates MCS's fair value at $21.23 vs the current price of $17.58, implying +20.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 76/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.23 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.79 (P10) to $52.88 (P90), with a median of $27.36.
MCS's current P/E of 42.9x compares to the industry median of 36.3x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +18.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 34.0x over 3 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
8 analysts cover MCS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $23.00 (range: $23.00 — $23.00), implying +30.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 76/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MCS trades at the 6320th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (34.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MCS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.