MODEL VERDICT
Charming Medical Limited Class A Ordinary Shares (MCTA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $29.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $29.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $29.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $29.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $29.35 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 2 industry peers | $1.60 | -94.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 1 industry peers | $0.26 | -99.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 2 industry peers | $1.58 | -94.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 1 industry peers | $0.24 | -99.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 2 industry peers | $1.21 | -95.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 1 industry peers | $0.23 | -99.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1.04 | -96.5% | 100% | 47 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 349× | 382× | 415× (Current) | 448× | 481× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $26 | $28 | $31 | $33 | $35 |
| Conservative (7%) | $26 | $29 | $31 | $34 | $36 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $27 | $30 | $32 | $35 | $37 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $28 | $31 | $33 | $36 | $39 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates MCTA's fair value at $1.04 vs the current price of $29.35, implying -96.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 47/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1.04 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $0.67 (P10) to $1.37 (P90), with a median of $0.89.
MCTA's current P/E of 414.5x compares to the industry median of 22.7x (2 peers in the group). This represents a +1728.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
No analyst coverage data is available for MCTA.
The model confidence score is 47/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (22), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MCTA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5930.0% to approximately $12. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.