Mister Car Wash, Inc. (MCW)
Valuation Overview•Is Mister Car Wash, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount across both intrinsic cash flow and relative peer multiples, indicating a strong margin of safety.
Moderate quality score of 53/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant solvency concerns.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral alongside robust expected earnings growth. The company currently retains all capital for reinvestment and growth rather than returning it to shareholders.
MCW demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (6.3% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 20.3% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $277.9M | +5.7% | +6.3% | +12.8% | — | |
| EBITDA | $82.4M | — | +6.7% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $34.2M | +46.8% | -3.0% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.10 | +47.6% | -3.0% | +9.2% | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $33.0M | +137.2% | -6.9% | -6.8% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 58.7% | 64.8% | 58.5% | 60.0% |
| Operating Margin | 20.3% | 19.2% | 15.7% | 16.5% |
| Net Margin | 10.3% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% |
| FCF Margin | 7.4% | -6.2% | -1.6% | -0.2% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.12 | $0.13 | +8.3% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.10 | $0.11 | +10.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.10 | $0.11 | +10.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.13 | $0.11 | -15.4% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.10 | $0.11 | +10.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.07 | $0.09 | +28.6% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.07 | $0.09 | +28.6% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.09 | $0.11 | +22.2% |
Total return is +10.4% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -10.4%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +27.7% | +20.4% | — |
| 1Y | +10.4% | -10.4% | — |
| 3YCAGR | -5.7% | -25.1% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -19.0% | -30.5% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -10.0% | -23.7% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Mister Car Wash, Inc. (MCW) valuation, health, and returns.
Mister Car Wash, Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Slightly cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +31.5% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $9.34)
Mister Car Wash, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $9.34 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $8.24 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $7.08 (implying -0.3% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Mister Car Wash, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 53/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 0.6 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 6.6%.
Mister Car Wash, Inc. does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
Mister Car Wash, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +5.7% 1Y revenue growth and +47.6% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +6.3%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 16 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 67% of recent quarters with a 3-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -0.3% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Mister Car Wash, Inc. include: -31.4% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.71x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.