Medifast, Inc. (MED)
Valuation Overview•Is Medifast, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a premium valuation multiple over its peers, likely pricing in superior execution.
Moderate quality score of 46/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant growth concerns.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
MED demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($73M) and minimal debt risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-37.7% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-4.7%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $76.0M | -36.0% | -37.7% | -16.2% | +3.5% | |
| EBITDA | -$3.3M | — | — | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$2.1M | -993.0% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.19 | -994.7% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$836K | -92.7% | -80.9% | -61.0% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 70.1% | 72.5% | 72.5% | 73.9% |
| Operating Margin | -4.7% | 2.9% | 6.9% | 9.8% |
| Net Margin | -5.8% | 1.6% | 4.9% | 7.3% |
| FCF Margin | -0.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 8.9% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $-0.55 | $-0.19 | +65.5% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.76 | $-0.55 | +27.6% | ||
| Q4'25 | $-0.01 | $-0.21 | -2000.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-0.30 | $0.04 | +113.3% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-0.07 | $-0.11 | -57.1% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-0.16 | $0.10 | +162.5% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-0.15 | $0.35 | +333.3% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.36 | $0.92 | +155.6% |
Total return is -22.1% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -47.1%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +6.2% | -3.2% | — |
| 1Y | -22.1% | -47.1% | — |
| 3YCAGR | -44.3% | -63.5% | +4.0% |
| 5YCAGR | -36.7% | -49.3% | +6.0% |
| 10YCAGR | +2.2% | -11.3% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Medifast, Inc. (MED) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, Medifast, Inc. appears Limited: Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers.
Medifast, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $3.67 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $12.00 (implying +8.7% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Medifast, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 46/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 4.0 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -8.1%.
Medifast, Inc. does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
Medifast, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved -36.0% 1Y revenue growth and -994.7% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -37.7%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 12 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 75% of recent quarters with a 2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +8.7% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Medifast, Inc. include: -37.4% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.79x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.