MODEL VERDICT
Medifast, Inc. (MED)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $16.72 | +48.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $5.05 | -55.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $30.03 | +165.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $11.41 | +1.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $48.22 | +326.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $104.76 | +827.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $68.11 | +502.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $5.00 | -55.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $30.03 | +165.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $28.78 | +154.7% | 100% | 65 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 49× | 54× | 59× (Current) | 64× | 69× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 |
| Conservative (5%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| Base Case (-50.6%) | $5 | $5 | $6 | $6 | $6 |
| Bull Case (-68%) | $3 | $3 | $4 | $4 | $4 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.28 | 17.04 | 7.39 | 92.74 | 29.69 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.42 | 13.89 | 5.23 | 41.13 | 12.13 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.11 | 10.77 | 4.74 | 19.44 | 5.33 |
| P/FCF | 18.07 | 16.70 | 5.20 | 41.00 | 12.48 |
| P/FFO | 15.05 | 14.48 | 6.52 | 25.07 | 6.67 |
| P/TBV | 9.50 | 12.22 | 0.92 | 14.80 | 5.38 |
| P/AFFO | 18.48 | 18.32 | 6.92 | 27.32 | 7.91 |
| P/B Ratio | 9.50 | 12.22 | 0.92 | 14.80 | 5.38 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.54 | 1.62 | 0.32 | 3.01 | 0.99 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates MED's fair value at $28.78 vs the current price of $11.30, implying +154.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $28.78 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $22.19 (P10) to $29.41 (P90), with a median of $25.69.
MED's current P/E of 59.5x compares to the industry median of 26.6x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +123.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.3x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
11 analysts cover MED with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $83.50 (range: $17.00 — $150.00), implying +638.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (5), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MED trades at the 7500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (27.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MED's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -2.6σ, meaning margins are 2.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 886040.0% to approximately $1013. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.