MODEL VERDICT
Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $417.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $410.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $520.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $518.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $493.53 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $254.15 | -39.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $274.43 | -34.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $352.52 | -15.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $372.44 | -10.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $415.10 | -0.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $520.72 | +24.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $601.29 | +44.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $291.87 | -30.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $231.79 | -44.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $354.01 | -15.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $364.44 | -12.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $416.81 | -0.2% | 100% | 91 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (13%) | $396 | $431 | $465 | $500 | $534 |
| Conservative (21%) | $424 | $461 | $498 | $535 | $572 |
| Base Case (31.8%) | $463 | $503 | $544 | $584 | $624 |
| Bull Case (43%) | $502 | $546 | $590 | $633 | $677 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 34.25 | 34.52 | 26.30 | 45.25 | 6.16 |
| EV/EBIT | 28.84 | 28.67 | 22.64 | 39.64 | 5.60 |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.38 | 26.59 | 20.42 | 35.83 | 5.22 |
| P/FCF | 23.29 | 23.09 | 17.17 | 34.90 | 5.86 |
| P/FFO | 30.75 | 31.57 | 24.53 | 40.42 | 5.66 |
| P/TBV | 125.22 | 68.38 | 32.93 | 331.20 | 138.82 |
| P/AFFO | 35.25 | 35.82 | 26.79 | 46.96 | 6.78 |
| P/B Ratio | 14.92 | 12.88 | 4.35 | 36.12 | 10.77 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.46 | 5.18 | 3.67 | 7.18 | 1.15 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates MEDP's fair value at $416.81 vs the current price of $417.54, implying -0.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $416.81 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $345.30 (P10) to $433.67 (P90), with a median of $388.63.
MEDP's current P/E of 27.3x compares to the industry median of 23.1x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +18.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 34.2x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
19 analysts cover MEDP with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $498.86 (range: $400.00 — $582.00), implying +19.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (12), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MEDP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1660.0% to approximately $487. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.