MODEL VERDICT
Methanex Corporation (MEOH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $64.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $59.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $54.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $57.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $59.87 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $98.33 | +53.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $91.47 | +42.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $18.43 | -71.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $217.30 | +238.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $89.36 | +39.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $232.38 | +261.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $31.52 | -50.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $56.52 | -12.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $18.29 | -71.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $210.62 | +227.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $101.43 | +57.9% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 58× | 63× | 68× (Current) | 73× | 78× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $57 | $62 | $66 | $71 | $76 |
| Conservative (7%) | $58 | $63 | $68 | $73 | $78 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $60 | $65 | $70 | $75 | $81 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $62 | $67 | $73 | $78 | $83 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.22 | 19.66 | 6.45 | 42.26 | 14.89 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.62 | 13.97 | 6.12 | 20.52 | 5.38 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.86 | 8.04 | 4.61 | 18.91 | 4.76 |
| P/FCF | 14.73 | 6.62 | 3.94 | 37.95 | 13.72 |
| P/FFO | 7.00 | 5.67 | 3.57 | 17.52 | 4.79 |
| P/TBV | 1.55 | 1.48 | 1.06 | 2.44 | 0.47 |
| P/AFFO | 15.97 | 13.61 | 5.03 | 29.48 | 10.67 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.55 | 1.48 | 1.06 | 2.44 | 0.47 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.87 | 0.86 | 0.63 | 1.32 | 0.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates MEOH's fair value at $101.43 vs the current price of $64.25, implying +57.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $101.43 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $82.86 (P10) to $116.62 (P90), with a median of $98.79.
MEOH's current P/E of 68.4x compares to the industry median of 19.6x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +248.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.2x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
19 analysts cover MEOH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $61.75 (range: $48.00 — $70.00), implying -3.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MEOH trades at the 7500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (22.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MEOH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (10.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5700.0% to approximately $101. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.