MODEL VERDICT
Ramaco Resources, Inc. (METC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $14.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $13.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $13.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $14.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $13.55 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $10.43 | -29.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $24.13 | +63.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $13.95 | -5.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $14.85 | +0.4% | 100% | 52 | FAIRLY VALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.63 | 9.93 | 3.38 | 48.86 | 18.55 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.80 | 7.29 | 3.24 | 25.11 | 8.89 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.44 | 6.31 | 2.57 | 56.32 | 21.30 |
| P/FCF | 8.78 | 9.84 | 6.06 | 10.44 | 2.38 |
| P/FFO | 12.46 | 5.85 | 2.48 | 53.62 | 18.29 |
| P/TBV | 1.56 | 1.27 | 0.72 | 2.85 | 0.75 |
| P/AFFO | 40.01 | 31.25 | 11.12 | 86.40 | 35.30 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.56 | 1.27 | 0.72 | 2.85 | 0.75 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.09 | 0.72 | 0.64 | 2.12 | 0.59 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates METC's fair value at $14.85 vs the current price of $14.79, implying +0.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 52/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $14.85 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.20 (P10) to $16.82 (P90), with a median of $13.80.
METC's current P/E of -14.4x compares to the industry median of 25.4x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -156.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.6x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
9 analysts cover METC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $20.83 (range: $15.00 — $30.00), implying +40.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 52/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for METC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.