MODEL VERDICT
Magna International Inc. (MGA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $60.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $62.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $60.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $56.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $57.85 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $77.07 | +26.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $87.42 | +43.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $53.60 | -11.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $54.30 | -10.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $52.39 | -13.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $47.33 | -22.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $85.71 | +40.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $93.14 | +53.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $53.60 | -11.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $54.30 | -10.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $66.05 | +8.6% | 100% | 83 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $47 | $54 | $61 | $68 | $75 |
| Conservative (5%) | $48 | $55 | $63 | $70 | $78 |
| Base Case (-8.8%) | $42 | $48 | $55 | $61 | $67 |
| Bull Case (-12%) | $40 | $47 | $53 | $59 | $65 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.35 | 13.97 | 6.88 | 28.10 | 8.41 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.33 | 12.42 | 7.38 | 21.60 | 5.52 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.46 | 6.06 | 4.33 | 10.12 | 2.04 |
| P/FCF | 16.64 | 9.97 | 6.88 | 39.52 | 12.57 |
| P/FFO | 6.56 | 5.72 | 4.08 | 10.02 | 2.23 |
| P/TBV | 1.99 | 1.96 | 1.41 | 2.55 | 0.37 |
| P/AFFO | 23.07 | 15.80 | 7.81 | 49.57 | 15.99 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.52 | 1.44 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.32 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.47 | 0.43 | 0.28 | 0.68 | 0.15 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates MGA's fair value at $66.05 vs the current price of $60.83, implying +8.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $66.05 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $61.41 (P10) to $79.88 (P90), with a median of $70.40.
MGA's current P/E of 17.3x compares to the industry median of 15.2x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +13.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.4x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
30 analysts cover MGA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $65.60 (range: $52.00 — $76.00), implying +7.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (14), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MGA trades at the 3910th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (16.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MGA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (4.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7920.0% to approximately $109. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.